One of this blog’s reader, Laura Trejo, feels that Google plus {she used to call it google -} is a big time failure and is a mere facebook clone. Her arguments are true to some extent as one cant say that google plus is a big hit just by considering the fact that it has reached the 10 million users mark in ten days. Yes, I do agree that google plus has reached this figure far quicker than facebook or twitter but most of google plus’s users are early adopters and we must agree that google plus hasn’t been seriously tested yet.
Google Plus’s strategic and orchestrated launch has been nearly flawless, certainly more successful than Google’s previous attempts at social networking. Thanks to Google’s failure with Google Buzz, early reviews of Google Plus were positive but reserved. Like clockwork though, technology celebrities like Kevin Rose and Robert Scoble started flooding Google’s new social network and before long, they were all singing its praises.

Like Gmail, Google released Google Plus invites in small spurts at first, which made everyone want to get in with an invite. This gave Google Plus a feeling of exclusivity. This resulted in 10 million users in only two weeks with high user engagement on Google Plus with many users reported they get more responses on Google Plus than they do on Twitter or Facebook. Google Plus certainly has momentum.
The unfortunate part of this is that the momentum is blinding the press and Google Plus users to the reality that Google Plus is dominated almost entirely by early adopters who tend not to be great predictors of the success of a social network.
If you take a look at other previous social media projects that were embraced by early adopters, you can get a better idea of this concept. If you think about the technology adoption lifecycle andRogers’ bell curve, a sociological model developed in the 1950s to predict the normal distribution of technology adoption, you can better understand this. Early adopters and innovators make up the first 16% of any given population that accepts a new technology. They tend to be members of the community that aren’t afraid to try new things, more risk-oriented people. This still leaves 84% of the population to adopt new technology.
If you look at Facebook, for example, which currently has 750 million users and you take into account that Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO and creator, has stated that he believes Facebook has hit critical mass, you can come up with some rough numbers to predict the future of Google Plus. Assuming 750 million users is the potential market for the adoption of a social media service, that would mean that (according to this math), the first 120 million users are considered early adopters for social networking. That is certainly a long way from Google Plus’s current 10 million users.
While Google Plus is riding a tidal wave of momentum at the moment, it’s still not as mainstream as Facebook. It’s hard to predict exactly what will happen with Google Plus and if it will sustain its growth past the early adopters.